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Speech 1世界金融市場(chǎng)<原文>(3)

改變世界的精彩演講:滾動(dòng)財(cái)富雪球的金融巨鱷 作者:江濤


Let me go back to the example I used when I originally proposed my theory in 1987:

the conglomerate boom of the late 1960s. The underlying trend is represented by earningsper share, the expectations relating to that trend by stock prices. Conglomerates improvedtheir earnings per share by acquiring other companies. Inflated expectations allowed them toimprove their earnings performance, but eventually reality could not keep up with expectations.

After a twilight period the price trend was reversed. All the problems that had been sweptunder the carpet surfaced, and earnings collapsed. As the president of one of the conglomerates,Ogden Corporation, told me at the time: I have no audience to play to.

This is a model of the conglomerate bubble. The charts of actual conglomerates likeOgden Corporation closely resemble this chart. Bubbles that conform to this pattern go throughdistinct stages: inception; a period of acceleration, interrupted and reinforced by successfultests; a twilight period; and the reversal point or climax, followed by acceleration on thedownside culminating in a financial crisis.

The length and strength of each stage is unpredictable, but there is an internal logic tothe sequence of stages. So the sequence is predictable—but even that can be terminatedby government intervention or some other form of negative feedback. In the case of theconglomerate boom it was the defeat of LeaseCo in its attempt to acquire ManufacturerHanover Trust that constituted the climax or reversal point.

Typically, bubbles have an asymmetric shape. The boom is long and drawn out:slow to start, it accelerates gradually until it flattens out during the twilight period. The bustis short and steep because it is reinforced by the forced liquidation of unsound positions.

Disillusionment turns into panic, reaching its climax in a financial crisis.

The simplest case is a real estate boom. The trend that precipitates it is that credit becomescheaper and more easily available; the misconception is that the value of the collateral isindependent of the availability of credit. As a matter of fact, the relationship between the availabilityof credit and the value of the collateral is reflexive. When credit becomes cheaper and more easilyavailable, activity picks up and real estate values rise. There are fewer defaults, credit performanceimproves, and lending standards are relaxed. So at the height of the boom, the amount of creditinvolved is at its maximum and a reversal precipitates forced liquidation, depressing real estatevalues.

Yet, the misconception continues to recur in various guises. The international bankingcrisis of 1982 revolved around sovereign debt where no collateral is involved. Thecreditworthiness of the sovereign borrowers was measured by various debt ratios, like debtto GDP or debt service to exports. These ratios were considered objective criteria, while infact they were reflexive. When the recycling of petrodollars in the 1970s increased the flowof credit to countries like Brazil, their debt ratios improved, encouraging further inflows andstarting a bubble.


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